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Going's Co-Founder and Chief Flight Expert Scott recapped how he did on his 2023 travel predictions and next week, he'll share his predictions for 2024. I thought I'd follow his lead and share my predictions for points and miles in the year ahead.
But, just like the person predicting the weather on the local news, I can be totally wrong and still keep my job. I predict...
Prediction 1: Annual fees will continue to rise—and so will authorized user fees.
Not to be the predictor of bad news, but in 2024, I suspect that this trend will continue and we’ll start to see more premium cards raise their annual fees. I also think that fees for authorized users will continue to rise.
Prediction 2: HawaiianMiles—and the Alaska Mileage Plan miles—are going to get a lot more valuable.
If the proposed Alaska-Hawaiian merger goes through, your HawaiianMiles are going to get a lot more valuable. That’s because you’ll be able to use them for Alaska flights. Alaska Airlines’ program, called the Alaska Mileage Plan, offers pretty decent redemption rates for its award seats.
Alaska Airlines is part of the OneWorld Alliance, and as a result of the Alaska Airlines–Hawaiian Airlines merger, Hawaiian Airlines will be, too. Currently, you can book international flights on Hawaiian through American Airlines (another OneWorld member), and I predict that after the merger, all Hawaiian flights will be bookable with your American or British Airways Avios!
But don’t transfer all your Amex points to Hawaiian Airlines just yet—we don’t know if 1 HawaiianMile will equal 1 Alaska Mileage Plan mile. Plus, this merger needs to be approved by the Justice Department first.
Prediction 3: Airline status will get harder to earn—but premium co-branded credit cards will help.
Delta made news last fall when they made changes to their frequent flier program, SkyMiles. Effective January 1, 2024, the airline retired Medallion Qualification Miles and Medallion Qualification Segments—its metric for earning status based on distance and flights flown, respectively.
Instead, earning Delta elite status in 2024 is dependent on Medallion Qualification Dollars (MQDs), or the amount you spend on Delta flights and other products within the Delta ecosystem. With this new revenue-based model for status, several premium Delta cards can give you a boost in working toward status. These cards will also earn MQDs at a slightly higher rate.
There’s good and bad news here. The bad news is that I expect this trend to continue, with more airlines moving toward awarding status based on dollars spent instead of miles flown. But, credit cards could and should play more of a role in earning revenue-based status. I hope to see premium co-branded airline credit cards offering ways to help make status more attainable. The MQD status boost on Delta cards is not adequate alone.
Prediction 4: The Chase Sapphire Preferred card will offer 3X points for travel.
My wish isn’t totally delusional: it could be the response to a new competitor card breaking onto the scene. News broke recently that Wells Fargo is going to launch a new travel credit card in 2024 called the Wells Fargo Autograph Journey. Among other things, the Autograph Journey will offer 3X points on travel.
It’s going to come with a $95 annual fee, a 60,000-point welcome bonus, and offer a variety of airline and hotel transfer partners. That’s a clear competitor to my favorite card. Maybe a little healthy competition is all the motivation we need.
Prediction 5: You’re going to have to make reservations for the Centurion Lounge.
Not to pick on my beloved Amex, but there’s been a handful of reports about the famed Centurion Lounges getting overcrowded.
In 2024, I’m going to predict that more airport Centurion Lounges are going to become reservation-only. This would be following the lead of the Centurion Lounge at the US Open: If you want to use the lounge during the annual tennis tournament, you have to claim a time slot on the Resy app.
I could easily see airport Centurion Lounges adopting this model. Amex owns Resy, so the infrastructure is already in place.
Prediction 6: Capital One will finally have a domestic airline transfer partner.
I think that will change in 2024, and you’ll finally be able to transfer your Capital One points to a domestic carrier.
Do the locations of the new Capital One Lounges hold any clues? Denver and Dulles are United hubs, while Dallas-Fort Worth is an American hub. Both have existing partnerships with other banks, so maybe it’ll be something different, like JetBlue.
Prediction 7: Citi will continue to be MIA in the premium travel credit card space.
Ever since Citi closed the beloved Citi Prestige Card to new applicants, Citi has been conspicuously absent in the premium or luxury travel credit card space. Points and miles enthusiasts still mourn the card’s retirement.
While there are rumors of a new Citi premium card, I predict that Citi will continue to drag its feet and not introduce a new luxury card.
This is a missed opportunity, though: Between the Amex Platinum’s sky-high annual fee of $695 and the comparative bargain of $395 for the Capital One Venture X Card, there is room for a new competitor in the middle.
Prediction 8: I will only open 1 card this year.
If you’re curious, the current travel credit cards in my wallet includes several entry- and mid-level travel credit cards as well as a mix of no-fee cash back and business credit cards that I convert to transferable travel points.
But because some banks limit you to opening five new credit card applications within a 24-month period, I only have space for a maximum of two new cards in 2024.
I do not currently have a luxury travel credit card or a co-branded airline card in my wallet.
Will 2024 be the year that all changes? It will likely depend on if there’s an outstanding welcome bonus available to earn.
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Going has partnered with CardRatings for our coverage of credit card products. Going and CardRatings may receive a commission from card issuers. Opinions, reviews, analyses, and recommendations are the author's alone, and have not been reviewed, endorsed, or approved by any of these entities. Some of all of the card offers that appear on this page are from advertisers; compensation may affect how and where the cards appear on the site; and Going does not include all card companies are all available card offers.
